Florida Poll Has Kamala Harris, Donald Trump in Dead Heat

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a dead heat in Florida, according to a new poll.
The poll, conducted by The Independent Center and The Bullfinch Group between September 20 and 23, found that Trump had a 1-point lead among registered voters in Florida, on 48 percent to Harris’ 47 percent—a lead well within the poll’s 4-point margin of error. The lead was the same when third-party candidates were offered as a choice.
The poll indicates that the race in Florida is extremely tight, making it anyone’s race to win. The poll surveyed 600 registered voters in the state.
Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns via email for comment.
Florida has traditionally been a key swing state, voting for Bill Clinton in 1996 and Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, but more recently, it has become a Republican stronghold, voting for Trump in 2016 and 2020.
In November 2022, GOP Governor Ron DeSantis secured reelection over his Democratic challenger with 59.4 percent of the vote against 40 percent for Charlie Crist.
However, the latest polls suggests that Republican support could be declining in the state, with some putting Harris within striking distance of Trump.
Morning Consult’s most recent poll, conducted between September 9 and 18 among 2,948 likely voters, gave Trump a 3-point lead over Harris. Another poll conducted by Morning Consult the week before gave the former president a lead of 2 points. The polls had a margin of error of +/-2 percentage points.
A poll conducted by Florida Atlantic University, Public Opinion Research Lab (PolCom Lab) and Mainstreet Research USA between August 10 and 11 gave Trump a lead of 2 to 3 points among 1,040 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent.
The PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research USA conducted the same Florida poll in April, when Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate, and the president was 8 points behind Trump.
“The narrowing gap between Trump and Harris is consistent with the tightening we have seen in other states. If this trend holds, we may see a competitive race in Florida,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., professor of political science and co-director of the PolCom Lab at the time.
Every poll conducted in the state since Harris entered the race on July 21 has shown Trump leading by 1 to 8 points, according to FiveThirtyEight. Before Harris entered the race, Trump had been leading by between 4 and 13 points.
The most recent Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll, conducted between September 16 and 19 put Trump ahead by 5 points among 1,602 likely voters—a lead outside of the margin of error.
And Trump remains ahead in Florida in every poll aggregator. FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker shows that he is 4.4 points ahead in the state, on 49.9 percent to Harris’ 45.5 percent.
RealClearPolitics puts Trump ahead by 6 points, and Race to the White House gives him a 3.3-point.
In 2020, Trump won the state by 3.3 points, up from his 1.2-point victory in 2016.
FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model shows that Trump is projected to win the state and its 30 electoral votes by a margin of 4.5 points.